Authored by Marcus König, with AI as a helpful editor in the process.
Published: Feb 26,2025
The recent German elections were more than just a reshuffling of parliamentary seats - they were a reflection of deeper societal shifts, exposing long-simmering tensions over identity, economic security and the country’s place in Europe. The surge of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) to nearly 21% of the vote, the decline of the Social Democrats (SPD) to a historic low and the stagnation of the Greens and Liberals signal growing dissatisfaction with the political mainstream.
While policy debates around migration, the economy and energy transition dominated the headlines, the underlying fault line is about something more fundamental: belonging. Who gets to shape the future? Who benefits from change and who feels left behind? These questions are shaping German politics more than any single policy issue.
For now, the next steps depend on the outcome of the just-started Sondierungsgespräche - preliminary coalition negotiations that will determine the shape of the next government. But regardless of who ultimately governs, the structural challenges remain the same.
The Logic of Mass Movements – Why the AfD Grows Despite Facts
One of the most common mistakes in analyzing the rise of populist movements is assuming that they can be defeated with better arguments, more rational discourse or by exposing their contradictions. This assumption misses the fundamental dynamics of mass movements.
Far-right parties like the AfD do not grow because they have the best economic policy, the most logical migration strategy or the most competent leadership. They grow because they offer something mainstream parties do not: a sense of purpose, identity and emotional belonging to those who feel disconnected from the current order.
Mass movements thrive in conditions of frustration and uncertainty. The more people feel that their individual lives lack meaning or that they are excluded from the benefits of progress, the more they turn to groups that provide a clear and simple narrative: We are the victims of an elite that has betrayed us. We must take back control.
Some surprising realities about mass movements challenge common assumptions, revealing that they are driven more by emotional and social dynamics than by logical arguments or policy failures. (1) It’s not the poorest who join them, but the frustrated middle class. Contrary to popular belief, far-right voters are not necessarily the most economically disadvantaged. Studies show that AfD supporters are often from the lower middle class—people who had something but fear losing it. Their anxiety about the future, rather than their current economic status, drives their anger. (2) Radicalization happens despite, not because of, policy failures. Many assume that if the government "fixes" issues like migration or economic stagnation, support for radical parties will decline. But history shows the opposite: when people have emotionally committed to a movement, policy changes do not sway them. If immigration were to drop tomorrow, for example, the AfD would not disappear. Instead, they would shift their narrative to a new “threat,” keeping the movement alive. (3) Contradictions and hypocrisy do not weaken mass movements. AfD politicians regularly contradict themselves, propose unrealistic policies and engage in scandals. Yet, their support remains stable. Why? Because mass movement followers do not evaluate their leaders based on competence. They evaluate them based on emotional connection and shared resentment. The movement is more important than the details of any one policy. (4) Attacking them makes them stronger. Every time mainstream parties or the media aggressively attack the AfD, they reinforce the party’s core narrative: The establishment is afraid of us because we are speaking the truth. The more excluded or demonized their supporters feel, the more tightly they cling to the movement.
This means that trying to “debunk” the AfD with facts, rational debates or exposing their incompetence will not work. These movements do not respond to intellectual arguments; they respond to emotion, grievance and group identity.
The lesson is clear: The AfD - and similar parties across Europe - cannot be defeated by trying to “win the argument.” They can only be weakened by changing the conditions that make them attractive in the first place. That means addressing the deep sense of economic insecurity, cultural displacement and loss of identity that drives people into these movements.
A Fractured Germany: Who Identifies With Progress, and Who Doesn’t?
Germany is still struggling to integrate its two halves - economically, politically, and socially. More than three decades after reunification, Eastern Germany continues to lag in wages, corporate presence and political representation. But the frustration that fueled the AfD’s rise in the East is not just about money; it’s about dignity.
For mobile elites - those who work in high-skilled industries, engage in international networks, and thrive in cities - progress means opportunity. They see themselves as European, open to the world and adaptable to (technological) change. Their identity is shaped by their careers, travel and global connections.
For many others, especially in the East and former industrial heartlands in the West (for example the Ruhr Valley), the story is different. Economic transformation has meant the loss of stable jobs that once provided not just income but purpose. For decades, heavy industry and manufacturing defined entire communities. When those jobs disappeared, they weren’t just economic losses - they were existential ones. The work that once anchored identity and social standing vanished, replaced by precarious employment or long-term dependency on the state. In the absence of these traditional pillars of belonging, nationalism often becomes the default. Being German - something that cannot be taken away - becomes a last refuge of identity.
This is why the AfD’s rhetoric resonates so deeply in these regions. Their voters aren’t just rejecting immigration or EU bureaucracy - they are rejecting a version of progress that has left them with little to hold onto.
The Migration Debate: A Symbol of a Deeper Crisis
Migration has become the single most polarizing issue in German politics, but treating it as simply a policy debate misses the point. For many voters, migration is not about numbers; it’s about whether they feel at home in their own country.
In regions with little actual immigration, opposition to migration is often strongest. Why? Because the debate isn’t just about asylum seekers - it’s about who has political and cultural influence. If you already feel ignored or excluded by those in power, watching the government dedicate resources to new arrivals while your own town declines reinforces the sense that you are no longer a priority.
At the same time, Germany faces a demographic reality: its economy needs immigration. With an aging workforce and labor shortages in key industries, migration is not just a social question but an economic necessity. The real challenge is not whether to allow immigration but how to manage it in a way that prevents social fragmentation.
This requires both pragmatism and clarity. A functioning immigration system needs clear rules, faster processing and visible integration efforts that reassure existing citizens rather than fuel their anxieties. The alternative - political paralysis and reactive crisis management - will only deepen the divide.
The Economy: A Prosperity That No Longer Feels Secure
Germany’s economic model is under pressure. The country’s industrial backbone - built on exports, energy-intensive production and global supply chains - is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, automation and the energy transition. While GDP numbers still look strong, many Germans feel the economy is slipping.
Rising energy costs, high tax burdens and bureaucratic inefficiencies make it harder for small businesses and industries to compete. Meanwhile, homeownership remains out of reach for much of the middle class and younger generations increasingly see their prospects narrowing.
Economic growth alone won’t solve this crisis of confidence. The real challenge is restoring a sense of security - knowing that hard work will still lead to a stable, prosperous life. Among other topics, that means: (1) Investing in strategic industries, especially AI, automation and clean energy manufacturing, to ensure Germany remains competitive in the global economy. (2) Addressing housing shortages and the high cost of living to make economic success feel tangible, not just statistical. (3) Cutting bureaucracy and simplifying regulations so businesses can innovate without being bogged down in paperwork.
A strong economy is not just about numbers - it’s about whether people believe the system works for them.
What Needs to Happen Now
Germany is at a turning point. If political leaders continue to focus on short-term coalition arithmetic instead of tackling the deeper issues at play, the polarization seen in this election will only grow. A pragmatic approach must include:
Restoring Trust in Institutions – People are not rejecting democracy itself; they are rejecting a political system that feels slow, distant and disconnected. Reforming bureaucracy, making government decisions more transparent and delivering on promises with visible impact will be key.
A New Identity Narrative – Germany needs to move beyond the stale East-West framing and acknowledge that many regions - not just in the East - feel left behind. National identity should not be reduced to abstract values; it needs to be tied to real opportunities and shared goals.
A Bold European Strategy – In a world of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, Germany cannot afford to be passive. A stronger European industrial strategy, a serious commitment to defense and a leadership role in technological innovation will determine whether Germany shapes Europe’s future or merely reacts to it.
Migration Without Paralysis – The debate is here to stay. The challenge is to move beyond emotional slogans and build a migration system that is clear, enforceable and fair. That means speeding up asylum processing and ensuring integration works in practice - not just on paper.
Germany’s Next Chapter
This election has made one thing clear: the old political formulas are no longer working. Stability will not come from maintaining the status quo but from building a future people can believe in.
Germany needs a vision that unites, rather than divides - a vision that offers progress without leaving large parts of the population behind. The country’s greatest strength has always been its ability to reinvent itself. The question now is whether it has the will to do so again.
Because if Germany doesn’t shape its own future, someone else will.